Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Iran
  • Kuwait
  • Turkey
  • Bahrain
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Israel
  • Qatar
  • Iraq
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Malaysia
  • Singapore
  • Sri Lanka
  • United Arab Emirates

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $209,970$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(2.38 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{246,488.7}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 80.8)}}\) (asimptote \(246,488.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,863$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(1.7 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,789.6}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 52.6)}}\) (asimptote \(8,789.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $30,947$ on 2020-06-23

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $41,033$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(724 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,557.3}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 90.8)}}\) (asimptote \(42,557.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $334$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(20.7 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{350.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 53.5)}}\) (asimptote \(350.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,395$ on 2020-06-23

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $190,165$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(4.41 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{173,133.3}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 35.4)}}\) (asimptote \(173,133.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,001$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(1.22 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,724.0}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 34.4)}}\) (asimptote \(4,724.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,316$ on 2020-06-23

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $23,062$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(322 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,029.7}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 114.3)}}\) (asimptote \(40,029.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $67$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(0.495 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.2\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,545$ on 2020-06-23

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $164,144$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(4.47 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{232,101.2}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 90.3)}}\) (asimptote \(232,101.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,346$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(36.3 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.8\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $52,913$ on 2020-06-23

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $21,512$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(4.68 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,767.9}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 39.1)}}\) (asimptote \(17,767.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $308$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(92.8 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{292.4}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(292.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,335$ on 2020-06-23

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $89,579$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(2.09 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103,635.3}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 89.3)}}\) (asimptote \(103,635.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $99$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(1.95 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{545.8}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 116.2)}}\) (asimptote \(545.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17,979$ on 2020-06-23

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $34,502$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(29.5 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.7\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,251$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(0.586 \times 10^{0.031t}\) (doubling rate \(9.8\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17,498$ on 2020-06-23

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Malaysia recovered 89%
Turkey recovered 72%
Singapore recovered 69%
Sri Lanka recovered 54%
Qatar recovered 50%
Kuwait recovered 47%
United Arab Emirates recovered 32%
Lebanon recovered 28%
Tajikistan recovered 26%

Malaysia⮸

Population $32,365,999$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,590$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(2.11 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,122.1}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 40.5)}}\) (asimptote \(8,122.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $121$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(56.8 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(72.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{116.2}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 17.7)}}\) (asimptote \(116.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $283$ on 2020-06-23

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $42,432$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(1.3 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,755.3}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 101.9)}}\) (asimptote \(41,755.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $26$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(7.02 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25.9}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 34.9)}}\) (asimptote \(25.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,411$ on 2020-06-23

Sri Lanka⮸

Population $21,413,249$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,991$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(186 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,337.9}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 65.8)}}\) (asimptote \(2,337.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $11$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(5.82 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(79.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12.8}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 15.2)}}\) (asimptote \(12.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $432$ on 2020-06-23

United Arab Emirates⮸

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $45,683$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(1.85 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{49,254.5}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 86.9)}}\) (asimptote \(49,254.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $305$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(41.2 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{291.8}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 47.6)}}\) (asimptote \(291.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11,675$ on 2020-06-23