Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $209,970$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(2.38 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{246,488.7}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 80.8)}}\) (asimptote \(246,488.7\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,863$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(1.7 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,789.6}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 52.6)}}\) (asimptote \(8,789.6\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $30,947$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $41,033$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(724 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,557.3}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 90.8)}}\) (asimptote \(42,557.3\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $334$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(20.7 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{350.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 53.5)}}\) (asimptote \(350.5\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,395$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $190,165$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(4.41 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{173,133.3}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 35.4)}}\) (asimptote \(173,133.3\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,001$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(1.22 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,724.0}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 34.4)}}\) (asimptote \(4,724.0\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $22,316$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $23,062$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(322 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,029.7}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 114.3)}}\) (asimptote \(40,029.7\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $67$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(0.495 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.2\) days)
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5,545$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $164,144$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(4.47 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{232,101.2}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 90.3)}}\) (asimptote \(232,101.2\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,346$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(36.3 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.8\) days)
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $52,913$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $21,512$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(4.68 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,767.9}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 39.1)}}\) (asimptote \(17,767.9\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $308$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(92.8 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{292.4}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(292.4\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5,335$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $89,579$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(2.09 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103,635.3}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 89.3)}}\) (asimptote \(103,635.3\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $99$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(1.95 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{545.8}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 116.2)}}\) (asimptote \(545.8\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $17,979$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $34,502$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(29.5 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.7\) days)
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,251$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(0.586 \times 10^{0.031t}\) (doubling rate \(9.8\) days)
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $17,498$ on 2020-06-23